Ordinarily, when setting up an enormous firework display you light the touch paper and stand well back. If your name is Martin Keamy then you go one step further and strap the detonator to your person, wired to your heart/pulse, and rig it to a ridiculous amount of explosives. Point is, we can expect fireworks. And with a two-hour season finale coming, we're going to get them. But before I discuss that, let's just consider the state of the Oceanic 6 after the fireworks. . .
There's curious behaviour exhibited by the Oceanic 6 as they are transported on the Oceanic rescue plane; their general demeanour and their agreed decision to stick to their false story. The events on the Island during There's No Place Like Home - Part 1 take place on Day 100. The official story has the Oceanic 6 missing for 108 days. Assuming the Island fireworks will take place in the next day or two, that gives our Oceanic 6 about a week to leave the Island, get to Membata (it means 'uncertainty' in Indonesian) in the Sunda Islands for official rescue, gather their thoughts and get their story straight.
The Oceanic 6 have quickly reconciled something hard to reconcile. Many of their fellow passengers (and Desmond, and Juliet) who were all eager to leave the Island were left behind. And the Oceanic 6 are ready to tell the world that they are all definitely dead (even though they know they aren't). The Oceanic 6 reconciled that story in under a week, unanimously.
My guess as to how this transpired goes like this. After all the fireworks everyone gathers on the beach. The Oceanic survivors. The Others. The remaining Freighter People. And The Others, lead by Alpert, perhaps with Locke and Ben, make an impassioned speech about the Island before it gets 'moved'. Perhaps they reveal something about it, or talk of how everyone is supposed to be there, that they will be safe once the Island is moved and live long, healthy lives. And then comes the choice - stay or go - and all but the Oceanic 6 make the choice to stay.
Obviously, the Oceanic 6 will vow to keep the Island secret so as to prevent future assaults on the Island (e.g. Keamy) from taking place and risking the lives of those they are leaving behind. I would also add that the likes of Juliet, Desmond, and The Freighter People will not be allowed to make this choice; the cover story of the crash of Oceanic 815 does not fit for them so they will not be allowed to leave. (Scope for some heartbreaking drama there, I feel!) Thus the muted shock of the Oceanic 6 on the rescue plane as a result of their consensual decision makes a kind of sense.
Almost certainly Claire will never materialise to make her choice and Jack will evidently have to live with the decision of, in her absence, leaving her behind. No wonder learning he was her half-brother came as such a stupefying shock - just one more factor that will plague his conscience and drive him to drink and drugs. On the bright side, at least Claire's mother awoke from her coma!
Kate will have had to agree to the story that she was pregnant with Aaron when she arrived on the Island. Most probably the only way Aaron was allowed to leave was if Kate stated that she gave birth to Aaron, to maintain the Oceanic smokescreen and ensure Aaron's existence made sense for the real world.
Meanwhile Sun's grief for Jin's death (I'll get to that) will have set into an ice-cold plan against her father (when she hugged her father Sun was not smiling - her resolve was firm). But there are two elements concerning Sun's takeover of Paik Industries that may prove mightily interesting.
The Internet is buzzing with rumours about Paik and The Orchid being linked due to the similar logos. Perhaps Paik supplied the technology? Maybe. I think Paik Industries almost certainly has something to do with Widmore/Dharma/Hanso. Now that Sun has the controlling share she may learn of major revelations concerning Paik Industries' relationship with the Island. All that's for the future. But I draw your attention to Paik discussing how five bank accounts had been used, presumably to stage the take-over. We know Sun plunged all her Oceanic money in; I just wonder if she didn't convince the other four members of the Oceanic 6 with bank accounts to invest some of their cash also. That would mean, if Paik is up to its elbows in Island-related business, the Oceanic 6 will have seats on the board to it all! (If Jack desperately wants to go back, his share and Sun's controlling interest in the company may be his ticket there. . .)
Jin's death then, as predicated since Ji Yeon, is apparently down to two people, according to Sun. The second is her father, indirectly responsible since he put Jin on Oceanic 815. The other person, I assume, is someone directly responsible. If Jin dies on The Freighter explosion then that other person would be Keamy - and if The Freighter explodes it means Keamy's death triggered the blast so Sun only has Mr. Paik to exact her vengeance on. Thing is, I am thinking this may present hope for Jin's survival.
Almost certainly The Freighter will explode. And we know Sun won't be on it when it does. But what if she leaves Jin on it and then it explodes? And what if, without her knowing it, Jin wasn't killed in the explosion? Perhaps he remained there with Desmond and Michael, and then Desmond received a flash of the future and they somehow escaped. Maybe picked up by Frank and his helicopter in the nick of time? It would be like when Jin escaped off the exploding raft in Season One's finale Exodus. And so Sun leaves the Island as one of the Oceanic 6 convinced her husband is dead unaware that he actually survived. . .
For those that really like their Jin dead, however, Sun does convincingly blame someone other than her father directly. She seems certain Jin is dead, and who was responsible. So maybe we will witness someone kill her husband right in front of her to leave no doubt. At this moment in time I am leaning towards the 'exploding Freighter with Jin not on it' idea. I think I like that one best because I hope Jin's not dead. Ask me tomorrow, I might be convinced Jin is dead meat. It's touch and go with that one.
There's No Place Like Home - Part 1 was all about set-up rather than pay-off, which is why this analysis is leaning heavily on predictions, and what a set-up! As we left it there were story strands dotted all over the place waiting to play out.
How are all these threads going to be woven together?
I've already stated I think The Freighter will explode. Ergo, since the detonator is strapped to Keamy, I reckon he's going to bite the big one too. I expect Ben will be the man that kills him. In the meantime Locke will get into The Orchid, but probably only after Jack and Sawyer, and Kate, Sayid, Alpert and The Others all converge to assault Keamy and co. Maybe Locke and Ben will stay at The Orchid to successfully move the Island, whilst the rest go back to the beach (Jack, Kate, Sayid and Hurley only have to meet up with Sun and Aaron to complete the 6). Sawyer will choose to stay, and request Kate fulfill a promise. That's kind of how I see it working because those are the beats that have to be hit to make everything play out. There are, however, potential wildcards all over the place.
Surely a pilot with a fully-functioning helicopter can't remain on the Island, and yet the Oceanic 6 made it to civilisation in a black dinghy (one we've not seen yet), so what of Frank and his flying machine?
And what of Dan's boat? And his urgency to get himself and his sweetheart Charlotte off the Island? And we can't discount the Black Smoke.
Or this guy.
Nor this persistent soul.
Let's face it. I'm overlooking the inevitable. I'm ignoring what's certain. The ending. Whatever it is, it's got to be a knock-out. Season One may have had that frustrating 'Jack and Locke peering down the hatch shaft' finish, but since then Lost has dropped bombs. Not fireworks. Bombs. From "Miss Widmore, I think we've found it" to "We have to go back!" the finales have delivered. So whilst I'm making all these predictions, the last prediction is the one I know the least about yet the one I am most certain of. We're going to get hit by a knockout punch; blind-sided, left reeling, stumbling into the space between Season 4 and Season 5.
I'm expecting fireworks all right. I'm expecting fireworks full in the face. Light the touch paper and stand well back. . .